NFL – Fantasy-relevant player updates (8/3/09)

Tarvaris Jackson – QB – Vikings

According to the Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune, Tavaris Jackson (knee) missed his third practice in a row. It just keeps looking bad for Jackson as preseason looms closer. Peter King at sportsillustrated.com  is under the impression that the starting job was Sage Rosenfels’ all along, and it’s hard not to agree with him when you consider Jackson’s poor outing in 2008. But then again, Rosenfels invented the helicopter last season. Poor, poor Vikings.

Reggie Bush – RB – Saints

We heard on Sunday from ESPN.com’s Chris Mortensen about how stunning Reggie Bush’s explosiveness was during practice, but now we hear that Bush was held out of practice on Monday due to swelling in his knee. “I don’t think it’s anything significant yet it’s significant enough to where I don’t want it to become irritated and keep him out for more than just a practice or two,” said New Orleans head coach Sean Payton. He also spoke of a “procedure” Bush had in the Spring, though no one knows about it. Is Payton talking about the microfracture surgery Bush had on his knee in December 2008, or is Payton just a little confused as to what “Spring” is? We should know more soon. Hopefully.

Antonio Bryant – WR – Buccaneers

Antonio Bryant missed Monday’s practice due to a minor knee injury sustained during Saturday’s practice, according to the St. Petersburg Times. “I just banged my knee picking a fumble up off the ground,” Bryant said. Apparently, it’s the same knee that was bothering him last season when it had to be drained, but now it’s just swollen. The team decided to play it safe and rest their starting wide receiver.

Michael Turner first overall? Yes? No, I don’t think so.

Ok, so the fantasy football world is buzzing with talk about Michael Turner and how he’s going to destroy in 2009. For example, the Talented Mr. Roto (whose analysis I deeply respect)…

“I am alone on my Michael Turner island because I don’t have Adrian Peterson first overall in my rankings, unlike everyone else on the planet.”

- Love/Hate: 2009 edition by Matthew Berry

There are TONS of interesting facts concerning Turner in Berry’s article/analysis that could very well predict another blow out year for the Falcons running back. However, there’s the “Curse of 370″ to consider.

“Well, I’ve checked the historical data, and let me say that I’m fully behind the existence of a curse. In the history of the NFL, there have been 27 instances of running backs amassing 370 or more carries in a season … and all but one of them declined in terms of total fantasy points the next year. (That one, LaDainian Tomlinson, somehow escaped the clutches of the curse despite 372 rushing attempts in 2002.)”

- Is there a “Curse of 370″? by Tristan H. Cockcroft

Wow. Just… wow. Sure, Turner had impressive stats in 2008, and anyone looking for a stud running back for their lineup would be very hard pressed to not draft him first overall, but 26 of 27 running backs in Turner’s position have dropped largely in production the following year. In the entire history of the NFL. That’s a lot. How much?

96.29% !!!

96.29% of running backs who ran more than 370 times (Turner ran 376 times in 2008) in the entire history of the NFL have seen their production drop by an average of 40% the following year. Yes, some had worse following years than others… but still. Bad. (Go read the article. They have nifty charts!)

Also, take into consideration that the Falcons are openly saying Turner will be getting fewer touches. “You can’t run 370 times a season,” Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey said. “If Michael does that, he’s going to wear out over time.” Jerious Norwood, and everyone picking him up for their bench, will benefit.

Turner won’t have the explosive year he had in 2008. You can count on that. But will he be a definite starter in your league?

You better believe it.

The 2009 NFL Season is only 8,121,600 seconds away.

Sure, to most people that’s just over three months away, but to us fantasy leaguers, we’re counting the seconds.

ESPN.com won’t let us draft until July 2nd, so I need to find a constructive use of my time when I’m not working on my draft list. Or… at actual work, but how many league championships is “work” going to win me? None! That’s how many.

So teams are practicing and OTAs are giving us an idea how players like Mark Sanchez and Chad Henne are measuring up to expectations. Brett Favre went under the scalpel to fix his torn biceps and the Vikes have given him an ultimatum. Dolphin Tight End David Martin might not play, Broncos Running Back Ryan Torain says there’s “no timetable” to when he’ll begin practicing and Quaterback Michael Vick’s return to the NFL is still highly questionable. How does all this affect the draft list you’ll be building in the next 1-3 months leading into the 2009 NFL Season?

I hope to provide answers to some of these questions.